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WTC Final Scenarios: South Africa Just One Win Away from Securing Top-Two Spot
WTC Final Scenarios: South Africa Just One Win Away from Securing Top-Two Spot
Australia, India and Sri Lanka are also still in the race, with 10 Tests left in this cycle.
In the current World Test Championship (WTC), there are still ten matches left, which is where there are various teams in dissension and the top positions are still empty.
South Africa’s series against Sri Lanka which they won by 2-0 has made them the top contenders in the WTC Table. For the final place, they are required to secure one win in their two matches that are going to be against Pakistan in the home series starting later in December. A 1-1 series result would put South Africa at 61.11%, with only either India or Australia able to surpass them.
If both of the matches are drawn, then South Africa’s average would be 58.33. On the other hand, if India is able to beat Australia 3-2 and Australia could win both of the test matches played in Sri Lanka then the average of Australia would be 60.53 meanwhile, India will be 58.77.
If South Africa loses the series 1-0, they would need Australia to win no more than two of their last five Tests, or India to secure no more than one win and one draw in their remaining three Tests in Australia.
Sri Lanka
Percent: 45.45, matches remaining: Aus (2 home)
If Sri Lanka were able to win both matches against Australia, their average would be 53.85, which will leave them dependent on the other results because either South Africa, India or Australia can beat the score easily- India required a draw and a win meanwhile, Australia will be needing two wins straight. To finish below 53.85 on both of the teams, Australia is required to win their series 2-1, which consists of two draws too. South Africa would drop below 53.85% only if they lose both Tests against Pakistan.
India
Percent: 57.29, matches remaining: Aus (3 away)
To fix its place in the finals, India is required to get a minimum of two wins along with a draw from their tests that are remaining in Australia. After that, their score would be 60.53%, which will provide them with second place behind South Africa, as Australia’s average will only be 57.02 even if they secure two wins against Sri Lanka. If India wins the series 3-2, they would reach 58.77%, and Australia could still stay below them with a 1-0 win over Sri Lanka. However, if India lose the series 2-3, they would drop to 53.51%, allowing Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa to overtake them. To qualify with that score, India would need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan and hope Australia manage at least a draw in Sri Lanka.
Australia
Percent: 60.71, matches remaining: Ind (3 home Tests), SL (2 away)
Australia need two wins in their three remaining Tests against India to guarantee a spot in the final. With a 3-2 series win, even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish on 55.26%, ahead of India’s 53.51% and Sri Lanka’s 53.85%, securing at least second place behind South Africa.
However, if Australia loses the series 2-3, India would move up to 58.77%. In that case, Australia would need to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to overtake India. Alternatively, they would need South Africa to earn no more than one draw against Pakistan, leaving South Africa at 55.56%. Australia could then surpass that with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, series remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)
Pakistan's chances of making the final are disappointing because of several outcomes, including South Africa losing an over-rate point. Even if Pakistan win all four remaining Tests, they would end at 52.38%, just below South Africa's 52.78%. If South Africa loses a point, they would drop to 52.08%, keeping Pakistan's hopes alive if other results go their way. However, realistically, Pakistan are all but out of contention.
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